The St. Johns River Water Management District declared a Phase III Extreme Water Shortage in May 2026, the most severe tier in Florida's water shortage framework. As of August 2026, the declaration remains in effect across northeast and central Florida, including Lake County, which was added to the Phase III area during the expansion. District data from June 2026 shows Floridan Aquifer groundwater levels at the 11th percentile for this time of year, meaning aquifer conditions are more depleted than in 89 percent of comparable measurement periods on record. For private well owners in Orange, Lake, Marion, Alachua, Citrus, and surrounding counties, those numbers are not abstract. Declining aquifer levels affect pumps, yield, and water quality in ways that vary by well depth, aquifer type, and local geology. This piece summarizes what the SJRWMD data shows and what it means in practical terms for residential well systems.
What the Phase III Declaration Actually Means
Florida's water shortage plan operates on four phases. Phase III, Extreme, is the level at which conditions have deteriorated enough to require mandatory irrigation restrictions across all user categories, including golf course fairways, commercial and institutional landscapes, and new plantings. At Phase III, aesthetic water use is prohibited and certain non-essential commercial water uses are suspended.
The SJRWMD moved to Phase III on May 13, 2026, citing "ongoing exceptional drought conditions, declining groundwater levels and reduced surface water flows across northeast and central Florida," according to the district's official press release. Lake County was added to the Phase III order as part of a subsequent expansion, relevant to our service area in Umatilla and surrounding communities.
The district noted that even with substantial additional rainfall, drought conditions are expected to persist due to the depth of the current deficit. To put that in perspective: a SJRWMD graphic released with the announcement indicated that rainfall equivalent to roughly three feet of precipitation over three months would be needed to substantially improve aquifer conditions, and even that volume would not immediately erase the effects of the preceding dry period.
Aquifer Condition Data: What the Numbers Show
The table below compiles publicly available SJRWMD data points reported through the first half of 2026. All figures are from official district communications and monitoring reports.
| Indicator | Reading / Status | Source and Date |
|---|---|---|
| Water shortage phase | Phase III (Extreme), active as of August 2026 | SJRWMD, May 13, 2026 |
| Floridan Aquifer groundwater level percentile | 11th percentile for the time of year | SJRWMD monitoring report, June 2026 |
| Geographic scope | Northeast and central Florida, including Lake County | SJRWMD, May 2026 expansion |
| Silver Springs flow (regional bellwether) | 476 cubic feet per second (low range for this period) | WJXT4 / SJRWMD data, March 2026 |
| Rainfall needed to recover | Approximately 3 feet over 3 months (and drought expected to persist regardless) | SJRWMD, May 2026 |
Silver Springs in Marion County is one of the most closely watched indicators of Floridan Aquifer health in central Florida. It is a first-magnitude spring fed directly by the Upper Floridan Aquifer. When spring flow declines, it reflects a drop in the potentiometric surface, the pressure level of water in the confined aquifer, across a wide area. A reading of 476 cfs at Marion County's most-monitored spring is a direct signal of regional aquifer stress that correlates with conditions in private wells drawing from the same formation.
Why Your Well Depth Determines Your Risk Level
Not all Central Florida wells draw from the same aquifer, and the drought's effects are not uniform across well types.
Surficial aquifer wells draw from the shallow, unconfined water table directly below the land surface. These wells, typically 25 to 75 feet deep, are most vulnerable to drought. The surficial aquifer responds directly to rainfall and evapotranspiration. During extended dry periods, the water table can drop several feet, and a shallow well that performed reliably for years can begin pulling air as the pump intake approaches the water surface. In Central Florida's current drought, surficial aquifer conditions are generally more stressed than Floridan Aquifer conditions because there is no confining layer buffering the shallow system from surface conditions.
Upper Floridan Aquifer wells draw from a deeper, confined limestone formation at depths typically ranging from 100 to 400 feet in central Florida. The Floridan is a pressurized system, meaning the aquifer is sealed by a confining layer above it, and water rises in a cased well to a level called the potentiometric surface. Historically, this system was artesian in many areas, meaning wells flowed without pumping. As the USGS has documented in long-term potentiometric surface monitoring, extensive groundwater withdrawal over the past century has depressed this surface significantly across much of the Floridan region.
The current drought compounds those long-term trends. The 11th-percentile aquifer reading reported by the SJRWMD in June 2026 refers to Floridan conditions. A well set at 200 feet is not immune; the pump must be set below the potentiometric surface to produce water, and if that surface has dropped substantially, a pump positioned at its original depth may begin drawing air or producing at reduced yield.
Warning Signs That Drought Is Affecting Your Well
The following symptoms, in order of how early they typically appear, indicate that aquifer stress may be affecting your specific well.
Air sputtering at faucets. Intermittent air discharge is the earliest and most common indicator. If your pump intake approaches the current water level in the well, it begins drawing a mixture of water and air. Sputtering air is not always drought-related, a failed check valve can produce the same symptom, but during an active Phase III water shortage with documented Floridan Aquifer depression, drought is the first hypothesis to evaluate. See our guide to pump failure signs for the diagnostic steps.
Reduced yield under sustained demand. If your well produces normal pressure for the first 10 to 15 minutes of demand but then loses pressure during a long shower or while filling a pool, the well may be recovering more slowly than the pump is drawing. This is a "yield limitation" pattern consistent with a water table that has dropped close to the pump intake depth. It differs from a failing pump, which shows reduced pressure immediately and consistently rather than after sustained draw.
Increased turbidity or sediment. A pump drawing near the bottom of the available water column can begin pulling sediment from the well casing that would not be reached under normal conditions. Sandy or cloudy water from a well that was previously clear warrants investigation. Our guide to sand and sediment in Florida well water covers the causes and what each indicates about well condition.
Pressure that was normal is now consistently lower. If household pressure has declined over the past several months without a change in demand, and your pressure tank and pressure switch test within spec, the well's available drawdown may have decreased. This is harder to diagnose remotely; it requires a static water level measurement inside the well to confirm.
What Well Owners Should Do Now
If you are in the SJRWMD's Phase III area and your well is on a surficial or Upper Floridan Aquifer source, the following steps are practical responses to current conditions.
Test for the symptoms above. Run a 20-minute continuous demand test: fill the bathtub or run two showers simultaneously and observe whether pressure holds steady or drops after 10 to 15 minutes. Note any air sputtering or sediment. Document what you find.
Have a static water level measurement taken. A Florida-licensed well contractor can lower a water-level tape or electronic sensor into your well to measure the current static water level and compare it against your pump setting depth. If the potentiometric surface has dropped to within 10 to 20 feet of the pump intake, repositioning the pump deeper is often the appropriate response. The Florida Department of Health maintains well contractor licensing requirements at floridahealth.gov; Chase Norris holds Florida Water Well Contractor License #7494.
Check your pressure tank air precharge. A waterlogged pressure tank causes short cycling that adds stress to a pump already working harder under drought conditions. See our pressure tank sizing guide for diagnostic steps.
For irrigation wells, reduce demand where possible. Phase III restrictions already mandate once-per-week irrigation. Beyond compliance, reducing irrigation demand during the drought reduces the drawdown in your well and slows the rate at which the potentiometric surface is depleted in your immediate area. The SJRWMD's current watering restriction details outline the mandatory limits and guidance for all water user categories.
If symptoms are present, do not wait. A pump drawing air intermittently can be repositioned. A pump that has run dry and burned out the motor is a replacement. The gap between those outcomes is often a matter of weeks in a sustained drought. Our emergency service covers the full Central Florida area when a well fails without warning, but a proactive service call costs less than an emergency call.